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P values: from suggestion to superstition #MMPMID27489256
Concato J; Hartigan JA
J Investig Med 2016[Oct]; 64 (7): 1166-71 PMID27489256show ga
A threshold probability value of ?p?0.05? is commonly used in clinical investigations to indicate statistical significance. To allow clinicians to better understand evidence generated by research studies, this review defines the p value, summarizes the historical origins of the p value approach to hypothesis testing, describes various applications of p?0.05 in the context of clinical research and discusses the emergence of p?5×10?8 and other values as thresholds for genomic statistical analyses. Corresponding issues include a conceptual approach of evaluating whether data do not conform to a null hypothesis (ie, no exposure?outcome association). Importantly, and in the historical context of when p?0.05 was first proposed, the 1-in-20 chance of a false-positive inference (ie, falsely concluding the existence of an exposure?outcome association) was offered only as a suggestion. In current usage, however, p?0.05 is often misunderstood as a rigid threshold, sometimes with a misguided ?win? (p?0.05) or ?lose? (p>0.05) approach. Also, in contemporary genomic studies, a threshold of p?10?8 has been endorsed as a boundary for statistical significance when analyzing numerous genetic comparisons for each participant. A value of p?0.05, or other thresholds, should not be employed reflexively to determine whether a clinical research investigation is trustworthy from a scientific perspective. Rather, and in parallel with conceptual issues of validity and generalizability, quantitative results should be interpreted using a combined assessment of strength of association, p values, CIs, and sample size.