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10.3390/biology9060134 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.3390/biology9060134 32580293!7345267!32580293     free     free     free Warning: imagejpeg(C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\phplern\32580293.jpg): Failed to open stream: No such file or directory in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 117       Biology+(Basel) 2020 ; 9 (6): ä Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32580293|t=2020. A Brief Theory of Epidemic Kinetics |pdf=|usr=}}{{32580293}} gab.com Text A Brief Theory of Epidemic Kinetics JO: Biology (Basel) http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32580293 #FOAvip In the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, and on the basis of the Theory of Dynamical Systems, we propose a simple theoretical approach for the expansion of contagious diseases, with a particular focus on viral respiratory tracts. The infection develops through contacts between contagious and exposed people, with a rate proportional to the number of contagious and of non-immune individuals, to contact duration and turnover, inversely proportional to the efficiency of protection measures, and balanced by the average individual recovery response. The obvious initial exponential increase is readily hindered by the growing recovery rate, and also by the size reduction of the exposed population. The system converges towards a stable attractor whose value is expressed in terms of the "reproductive rate" R(0), depending on contamination and recovery factors. Various properties of the attractor are examined, and particularly its relations with R(0). Decreasing this ratio below a critical value leads to a tipping threshold beyond which the epidemic is over. By contrast, significant values of the above ratio may bring the system through a bifurcating hierarchy of stable cycles up to a chaotic behaviour. Twit Text FOAVip A Brief Theory of Epidemic Kinetics ????Biology (Basel) http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32580293 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32580293 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32580293}}</ref> A Brief Theory of Epidemic Kinetics #MMPMID32580293 Louchet F Biology (Basel) 2020[Jun]; 9 (6): ä PMID32580293show ga In the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, and on the basis of the Theory of Dynamical Systems, we propose a simple theoretical approach for the expansion of contagious diseases, with a particular focus on viral respiratory tracts. The infection develops through contacts between contagious and exposed people, with a rate proportional to the number of contagious and of non-immune individuals, to contact duration and turnover, inversely proportional to the efficiency of protection measures, and balanced by the average individual recovery response. The obvious initial exponential increase is readily hindered by the growing recovery rate, and also by the size reduction of the exposed population. The system converges towards a stable attractor whose value is expressed in terms of the "reproductive rate" R(0), depending on contamination and recovery factors. Various properties of the attractor are examined, and particularly its relations with R(0). Decreasing this ratio below a critical value leads to a tipping threshold beyond which the epidemic is over. By contrast, significant values of the above ratio may bring the system through a bifurcating hierarchy of stable cycles up to a chaotic behaviour. äA Brief Theory of Epidemic Kinetics (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing