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A minimal model of hospital patients dynamics in COVID-19 #MMPMID32834645
Papo D; Righetti M; Fadiga L; Biscarini F; Zanin M
Chaos Solitons Fractals 2020[Nov]; 140 (ä): 110157 PMID32834645show ga
Italy has been one of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. While the overall policy in response to the epidemic was to a large degree centralised, the regional basis of the healthcare system represented an important factor affecting the natural dynamics of the disease induced geographic specificities. Here, we characterise the region-specific modulation of COVID dynamics with a reduced exponential model leveraging available data on sub-intensive and intensive care unit patients made available by all regional councils from the very onset of the disease. This simple model provides a rather good fit of regional patient dynamics, particularly for regions where the affected population was large, highlighting important region-specific patterns of epidemic dynamics.