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10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110211 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110211 32863610!7443326!32863610     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 219.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 219.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 219.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Warning: imagejpeg(C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\phplern\32863610.jpg): Failed to open stream: No such file or directory in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 117       Chaos+Solitons+Fractals 2020 ; 140 (ä): 110211 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32863610|t=2020. A non-central beta model to forecast and evaluate pandemics time series |pdf=|usr=}}{{32863610}} gab.com Text A non-central beta model to forecast and evaluate pandemics time series JO: Chaos Solitons Fractals http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32863610 #FOAvip Government, researchers, and health professionals have been challenged to model, forecast, and evaluate pandemics time series (e.g. new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19). The main difficulty is the level of novelty imposed by these phenomena. Information from previous epidemics is only partially relevant. Further, the spread is local-dependent, reflecting a number of social, political, economic, and environmental dynamic factors. The present paper aims to provide a relatively simple way to model, forecast, and evaluate the time incidence of a pandemic. The proposed framework makes use of the non-central beta (NCB) probability density function. Specifically, a probabilistic optimisation algorithm searches for the best NCB model of the pandemic, according to the mean square error metric. The resulting model allows one to infer, among others, the general peak date, the ending date, and the total number of cases as well as to compare the level of difficult imposed by the pandemic among territories. Case studies involving COVID-19 incidence time series from countries around the world suggest the usefulness of the proposed framework in comparison with some of the main epidemic models from the literature (e.g. SIR, SIS, SEIR) and established time series formalisms (e.g. exponential smoothing - ETS, autoregressive integrated moving average - ARIMA). Twit Text FOAVip A non-central beta model to forecast and evaluate pandemics time series ????Chaos Solitons Fractals http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32863610 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32863610 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32863610}}</ref> A non-central beta model to forecast and evaluate pandemics time series #MMPMID32863610 Firmino PRA; de Sales JP; Goncalves Junior J; da Silva TA Chaos Solitons Fractals 2020[Nov]; 140 (ä): 110211 PMID32863610show ga Government, researchers, and health professionals have been challenged to model, forecast, and evaluate pandemics time series (e.g. new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19). The main difficulty is the level of novelty imposed by these phenomena. Information from previous epidemics is only partially relevant. Further, the spread is local-dependent, reflecting a number of social, political, economic, and environmental dynamic factors. The present paper aims to provide a relatively simple way to model, forecast, and evaluate the time incidence of a pandemic. The proposed framework makes use of the non-central beta (NCB) probability density function. Specifically, a probabilistic optimisation algorithm searches for the best NCB model of the pandemic, according to the mean square error metric. The resulting model allows one to infer, among others, the general peak date, the ending date, and the total number of cases as well as to compare the level of difficult imposed by the pandemic among territories. Case studies involving COVID-19 incidence time series from countries around the world suggest the usefulness of the proposed framework in comparison with some of the main epidemic models from the literature (e.g. SIR, SIS, SEIR) and established time series formalisms (e.g. exponential smoothing - ETS, autoregressive integrated moving average - ARIMA). äA non-central beta model to forecast and evaluate pandemics time serie(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing