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Mathematical modelling on COVID-19 transmission impacts with preventive measures: a case study of Tanzania #MMPMID32990177
Mumbu AJ; Hugo AK
J Biol Dyn 2020[Dec]; 14 (1): 748-766 PMID32990177show ga
The outbreak of COVID-19 was first experienced in Wuhan City, China, during December 2019 before it rapidly spread over globally. This paper has proposed a mathematical model for studying its transmission dynamics in the presence of face mask wearing and hospitalization services of human population in Tanzania. Disease-free and endemic equilibria were determined and subsequently their local and global stabilities were carried out. The trace-determinant approach was used in the local stability of disease-free equilibrium point while Lyapunov function technique was used to determine the global stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Basic reproduction number, R0 , was determined in which its numerical results revealed that, in the presence of face masks wearing and medication services or hospitalization as preventive measure for its transmission, R0 = 0.698 while in their absence R0 = 3.8 . This supports its analytical solution that the disease-free equilibrium point E0 is asymptotically stable whenever R0 < 1 , while endemic equilibrium point E * is globally asymptotically stable for R0 > 1 . Therefore, this paper proves the necessity of face masks wearing and hospitalization services to COVID-19 patients to contain the disease spread to the population.